Thursday, October 28, 2004

Election Prediction: Forget The Polls, It Comes Down To Common-Sense

Kerry is going to win the 2004 Election, and it may be a landslide. I have been saying this for almost a year, based solely on this common-sense logic:

In 2000, a weak candidate like Gore, was able to win the popular vote (and electoral vote if you look at the recount), when Democrats were apathetic, Nader was a major vote drain, and millions of new voters were not yet registered in the system.

In 2004, the Democrats have a significantly stronger candidate team with Kerry and Edwards. But more importantly, Democrats are more motivated than ever, Nader will likely only take fringe voters this time around, and millions of new Democratic voters have come into the system.

When you pile this common-sense logic onto all of the troubles the current administration has had over the past year and (in recent days) with Iraq, flu, missing weapons, poor economic numbers, and on and on, it just seems clear that the Democratic candidate will handily win this time around.

Everyone is saying it is neck and neck, but the polls this season are essentially irrelevant because pollsters are polling the past. Any statistician will tell you that you need a representative and random sample to predict accurate results. Yet, they are not polling people who have just registered or who have cell phones. Garbage in, garbage out.

So we'll see in just a few days if my reasoning holds up. And if it does it will be a Kerry landslide.

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